Eirikur Bergmann, a professor in political science and director of the Centre for European Studies at Bifrost University has asked the question that many of us have been demanding an answer for but needed to be asked in public.

Where is Iceland’s place in the world going to be if the EU membership is rejected?

As Eirikur suggested in a radio interview this morning a vote against membership would probably prompt questions from the EU about how Iceland intends to uphold its side of the EEA agreement? The current and necessary currency restrictions are in breach of the free movement of capital which is  one of the cornerstones of the European Economic Area. Because of the special circumstances of an economic collapse, this has been temporarily overlooked by the EU while Iceland applies for membership.

The politicians and voters in Iceland who plan to vote against membership have therefore to ask themselves the question of whether they are prepared to shut the door on EEA membership as well, and if so what is their vision for Iceland on the global stage in the next thirty to fifty years?

The Independence Party, the Left Greens and the Progressive Party have yet to provide an alternative vision for different reasons of internal disputes, corruption, special interests, nationalism and fear.

Maybe China is the preferred partner. Its increased involvement in Africa has certainly caught the eye on the global stage.  China seems to be willing to invest in nations and aid regimes with less concern for corruption, workers’ safety and environmental impact than the pesky EU. China’s “trust” in the Icelandic economy as Central Bank Governor Mar Gudmundsson so eloquently put it certainly seems to be comparable to its involvement in South Korea, Belarus, Argentina, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The US is the choice of many relics from the Cold War but it would seem a hesitant ally, only willing to step in if  it would sense a growing influence from China. But then again, politicians from the Independence Party have found the tactic of crying “wolf” or crying “commie” to be exact, to be fruitful in their relationship with the US…that is until the economic collapse when cries of “the Russians are coming” had no impact.

Besides, when considering a bi-lateral agreement with superpowers such as the US and China, Iceland’s politicians seem to have little regard for the cherished sovereignty of their country. A lone ally who is considerably larger is in a better position to bully the smaller partner through a bi-lateral agreement rather than through international organizations such as the EU…or just leave it behind as the US did with Iceland in 2006.

A Kalmar Union of the Nordic countries is wishful at best, delusional at worst. The Nordics have long ago realised that their interests are best served in the EU and by forming coalitions within organizations such as the IMF, UN etc.  Norway can economically afford to stay out while it has oil, but it still chooses to participate much more actively in the EEA than Iceland ever has. If the wells would dry up, you would see Norway in the EU in a flash. The Nordics countries are themselves small players on the international stage, together they can wield much greater influence than alone.

Some sort of an arrangement with Norway alone begs the question, why? Why would an independent, sovereign nation rather be dependant on a bi-lateral relationship with another small nation instead of actively participating in the larger union of European nations?

Then there are the two choices of “something else” or “going it alone”. Both display serious desperation. Just “doing something” is what slacker teenagers do, not proud, independent nations. By going alone, Iceland might find itself in just that position, frightfully alone in the world that does not care as it leaves it behind.

But maybe these are viable alternatives? We just don’t know because they have been suggested by individual members, unofficially and without expanding on them. It would now be honest and courageous of the three parties who do not see a future in the EU to come forth with their visions. How is Iceland going to make a place for itself in the world in this century?

Related posts:

1. Why Not NAFTA?
2. The Drunk In The Pond
3. The Generation Doing Just Fine
4. A “Special” Iceland
5. A Constant Crisis