The picture is pretty clear although some minor changes might occur when they count the strikeouts in the next couple of days.
X-S: The Social Democrats are the biggest winners of the election. They scored 30% and are now boast of the largest support in the country, up 3,2% from the last election and manage to add two new members of parliament. They didn’t measure this highly in the polls beforehand which indicates that they received many of the undecided votes. The big talking point seems that as the discussion has moved towards the EU, the Social Democrats gained because they were the first to take a stand with entering into talks. This is a massive victory for Johanna Sigurdardottir who once declared that her time would come. It has and she thouroughly deserves it for maintaining her fierce stand for all the right values of a fair society, in a time when it was under attack.
X-V: The government scores a majority with the Left Greens coming in at 21,5%, a 7% gain and adding 5 members to the parliament. At one point it looked like the lead would be even bigger but this is remarkable news. In Icelandic history, voters have never before swung so dramatically to the left. But there is disappointment. The Left Greens have boasted about being the largest party that didn’t have anything to do with running the country in the last couple of decades and scored a lot better in the polls than in the eventual results. Theories abound that many who wanted to vote for them couldn’t make themselves do it when they entered the booth because of some extreme leanings in some quarters of the party. That would have been the gain of the Social Democrats and the Citizen’s Movement. Environmental Minister, Kolbrun Halldorsdottir doesn’t manage to keep her seat. The party might have to concede to the Social Democrats on entering talks with the EU to stay in.
X-D: Was it a crushing defeat or a major victory? When the chips are down, voting for the party that changed Iceland into a hedge-fund should have been as sensible as Germans voting for the National Socialist German Worker’s Party in the late 1940′s. But then again, the Germans didn’t have the choice at the time and many probably would have. The Independence Party lost ten seats in parliament and 12,8% of their following. Battered by infighting and shocking revelations of the interwowen web between its leaders and the largest banks and businesses in the past few years, they were always in for a defection. But why do 23,8% of voters still trust the party to do the best job. Old habits die hard and the party has more than most managed to build a religious fervour within its ranks. It would have been interesting to see a breakaway party formed by the most hardcore following run because then we’d probably be writing the Independence Party’s obituary. Expect cries of Iceland becoming communist and the throwing of large Bonus-pigs from the giant glass house the party currently occupies while they get to work on stopping the rot within.
X-B: The Progressive Party gained 2,9% and 3 members of parliament with 14,6% proving that advertising works. Especially if you promise people free money as the party did with its 20% proposed writeoffs and plaster your ads on bus stops next to high-schools. This former powerhouse might rejoice but are still toxic for most to work with.
X-O: The nation goes to the parliament. A huge win for the nine-week old Citizen’s Movement. Sometimes being new and relatively untainted carries a lot of weight. Populist and therefore easy to like, they have been given a chance with 7,3% and four members of parliament. Now lets see how they use it. Bringing them into the government might sharpen lines and give the government extra leverage.
X-F: The Liberal Party is wiped out with 2,2%, down from 7,3% and losing all four seats in the parliament. The party, formed around the resent towards the fishing quota system has been rife with infigthing and frankly less than reliable characters. Reaped what it sowed.
X-P: The Democratic Movement got the votes of its own candidates and a couple of their family members and therefore 0,6%. A couple of decent ideas were overshadowed by the curious ensamble of candidates. Imagine Boris Johnson and Larry Flynt leading the WWF as a political party.
The most likely result? The government will keep working together, merge some ministries, hire experts as ministers, attempt a national assembly on the constitution and try to figure out how much trouble the country is in. Expect the Left Greens to give in on the EU, as the Social Democrats could theoretically form a majority with the Progressive Party and the Citizen’s Movement. That would probably lead to nothing but trouble, allowing the Independence Party to court the Left Greens. Bringing the Citizen’s Movement into a three-way with the outgoing government might be a fortunate move if they dare.
So now you have the shovels, so start digging.
Update 1hr later: The Independence Party has added one taken from the Progressive Party.
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April 26th, 2009 → 10:12 am @ Dadi
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