The conclusion to a paper I wrote in a course in International Relations at the University of Iceland last semester. The title of the paper, Why has Iceland applied for EU membership?
The time and the place of the Social Democrats
Icelanders have participated in the European integration process without perhaps understanding the larger implications of it. The overall negative perception towards the EU has mostly derived from a nationalistic discourse and the position of the leading sectors which have thought their interests best served as part of the European Economic Area but outside of the European Union.
The conclusion of this paper is that the reason Iceland applied for EU membership in the summer of 2009, is that at a perilous time of economic uncertainty, the Icelandic people elected the only political movement in the country with a positive attitude towards Europe, to lead the nation. The Social Democrats took a logical step towards membership talks with the EU in the wake of an election victory. EU membership was the party’s main focus, and it was victorious.
The Social Democrats’ position towards the EU can be traced back to the social democratic roots of the movement. Unlike the Independence Party and the Progressive Party, it did not owe its political progress to any special sectors or industries but more from the support of the unions. The fact that its own former leader, Jon Baldvin Hannibalsson was the foreign minister who negotiated the EEA agreement on Iceland’s behalf, provided the movement with a unique perspective on the European integration and abilities to form opinions on Iceland’s role.
The outcome of the national referendum on EU membership is uncertain at best. Christine Ingibrigtsen’s studies indicate that the leading sectors in the economy will be having their say. The fishing industry is strongly opposed Iceland joining and so are the loudest voices within the agricultural sector. Wealthy individuals from the fishing industry have for example bought the country’s most recognized newspaper, without doubt to influence the debate. In an economic downturn, the public tends to become more impatient in its attitude towards the government and turn even more nationalistic, and that could affect the Social Democrats if the clean-up from the economic collapse is perceived to be going slowly. The Social Democrats would have to convince the nation that its own interests are really the interests of the public, while other parties are guarding the interests of certain sectors.
Judging by the situation and debate in Iceland in the autumn of 2009, it is easy to predict a negative vote in a national referendum, and that Iceland will reject membership. Such a result would probably be interpreted as a major blow for the Social Democrats and its policies and the result would even be judged in favour of the Independence Party. That is why it is not enough just to apply for membership. The Social Democrats have to rally the unions and make sure that there is an open and enlightened debate about the process and conclusion of EU membership application if it intends to reach its goals which are for Iceland to join the EU.
PS, February 2010: Increasingly the Social Democrats are appearing to not realise that they were granted the time and the place to lead Iceland forwards and towards the EU. That time is running out. By dropping the ball on household solutions, IceSave and with lenient attitude towards the banks and questionable businessmen the signs are more ominous every day. Unfortunately the movement might just be too limp to offer the leadership required. That is, unless it takes the fight to the nationalists sooner rather than later.
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JP
6 months ago
Dadi, I think that the matter of Iceland in EU is far more complex that Icesave matter.
Everybody in favour of Iceland as a EU member thinks that this may solve some of Icelandic problems and gives some kind of ‘protection’.
It is just believing in a fairytale.
I would ask you – what are the main advantages for Iceland to join EU ?
Dadi
6 months ago
JP, I did not say that Iceland in EU is about IceSave.
You talk of a “fairytale”. That is a diversion. No one says everything is rosy in the EU. But it has a whole lot more to offer than the alternative.
The reason Iceland is not in the EU can be traced to nationalism and the control held by the fishing industry and agriculture industry within the Independence Party and Progressive Party…and to a lesser extent within the Social Dems.
Iceland is without a friend in the world. Our democracy has been raised on the foundations protected by the US, when the US considered Icelandic interests to go hand in hand with their own. In 2006 that was over. When the other Nordic countries were granted assistance from the US in 2008, Iceland was shut out.
We would gain for starters:
a) Military protection
b) A real currency
c) Getting rid of the price indexation
d) Diffusion of power from Icelandic elitist special interests
No small countries anywhere “go it alone” without protection or co-operation with its strong neighbours. Iceland might try but it will cost us dearly. And by us, I mean us who stand outside the fishing elite and political elite.
Tell me, what are the main advantages for Iceland not to join?
JP
6 months ago
Dadi, let´s take a closer look what is the future of EU. Is it its expansion on Morocco, Libya, Ukraine and Egypt ?
In my opinion EU is in the same point of time as Iceland was ,let´s say 2 years before banking collapse.
EU is heavily overdebted by its governments, rolling over the debts to the next generations.
Cheated bookkeeping that was discovered in Greece is probably the peak of an iceberg.
EU is starting to loose its momentum.
Euro as a currency also started to be a burden more, than an advantage.
Unlimited capital inflows cause bubbles like it was the cese with Iceland.
The clear example is Spain, where capital inflow from other EU countries caused a boom in construction industry and as a result, prices went up too high.
Spanish products lost their competitive advantage over other countries.
But now, Spain with the Euro cannot simply devalue its currency.
It started to be a big problem also for Slovakia.
Poland is also preparing for adopting Euro, but maybe this disaster never happen in Poland.
As it come to your list of advantages.
Well, let see that EU consists of countries closely bound together, and only the main ‘core’ ö Germany, France, Benelux, Austria is doing quite well. Everything outside that core is treated somehow like dependend territories or it would be in short future )look that for Greece problem the only solution so far is to steer the Greek economy from Berlin, by Deutsche Bundesbank. Maybe this is the only way to save Euro, but at the expense of loosing independence.
As for military protection – this is also just theatrical feature. Against what is Iceland to be protected ? Polar bears ?
If you need military protection, ask Poland, they are always willing to send troops anywhere to show off and be in front line, although it is not supported by the most of citizens.
In my opinion Iceland now is facing problems that EU will face in short term future and it will reveal total lack of support and lack of integrity in EU. So Iceland can face a replay of its current problems being in EU, when european funds and capital inflows create a new bubble.
As for Icelandic elitist.
I think inside or outside the EU the problem will stay the same, or maybe in EU it would even grow bigger. Who is going to represent Iceland in European Parliament ? The same members of these elites. Who is going to take the lion share of EU´s funds or at least would be in portioning this cake – the same people.
So joining the EU could even make them stronger.
And finally who are Iceland closest neighbours ?
Greenland (which want to be outside EU), Faroe Islands, Norway, UK – all countries somewhat not keen about EU.
The bitter truth is that Iceland has to develop new growth model and it should be sensible and based on available resources not phoney dreams.
So the fishing industry should be developed to offer more fully processed products , not raw, frozen or salted.
Tourism has also a great space for improvement offering wider choice of activities.
And let´s look at climate changes – Iceland could be a good place to buy a summer house or spen holidays as the weather is getting milder than in continental Europe.
Also the way of the future is modern greenhouse farming.
But at the and I must admitt that we have both sth in common – you and me are tired of our own countries and governments acting so we start to look fo a future elsewhere. I don´t have bad experience with Iceland so far but I have a lot of bad experience with living in my country.