Egill Helgason points out that it is hard to interpret events as they happen. He takes 9/11 for example. It was a landmark event, yet it did not change the world as everyone expected it to.
Samuel Huntington’s predictions of Clash of Civilizations have so far been found to be lacking on many affronts, except maybe in dramatization.
The mind wanders back to December 2001 and a man named Georges Rocourt who was my economics professor. An energetic guy who claimed he only slept a few hours a night. I slipped him free tickets to advance screenings of movies which I got through being the school newspaper editor. He took the time to talk to me about current events and regularly brought me copies of the many magazines he subscribed to.
He had been in the World Trade Center on 9/11 when the planes hit. He got out.
In a conversation at the end of the year he told me that the most significant alarming news of the year was not the attack, but Enron. Its ramifications would have much bigger effects on the world as we knew it down the line.
And with the world focused on combating terrorists for the next few years, very few people demanded necessary action on financial reform. Regulation became even more lackadaisical through the decade.
Black swans, rearview mirrors and hindsight and all… what are we missing in the big picture right now?
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Hansi
1 year ago
“what are we missing in the big picture right now?”
Everyone is calling for a financial reform worldwide that limits complex derivatives but what about high frequency trading?… That’s a future issue which will be an issue 1-2 years from now. It’s already killing retail investors and although I’m not against algo trading I think the playing field should be levelled to some extent.
Lino
1 year ago
I have not read everything in Clash of civilizations but on some counts I find it accurate, as far as I can see.
It’s a book that should be not considered for details but for trends, paradigms rather than prediction of the future.
I’m not sure that the Enron matter is more world shattering that 9/11.
not saying that Enron is just a regulatory wrinkle, it was a systemic failure, but 9/11 is a fundamental paradigm changer, far beyond a few thousand dead people for which I care little (Beslan was far far worse in human terms even with less victims).
Knute Rife
1 year ago
Personally, I consider The Clash of Civilizations to be another AEI diversion. Religion and culture are convenient proxies for the real root of present conflicts, economics. People turn to religion and tradition when they have nothing else. As wealth continues to centrifuge, more people will be driven to alternatives.
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